St. Patrick's Day Brings First 2025 Tropical Outlook
The National Hurricane Center issued its first tropical outlook of 2025 for a disturbance in the Atlantic on Monday. While the development of this system into a named storm was not expected,it's a reminder that in many recent years,the season has started early.
(MORE:Changes You'll See This Hurricane Season)
Area To Watch Was Just A Curiosity
The low-pressure system,highlighted by the National Hurricane Center midday Monday (yellow circle below),was given just a 10% chance of becoming a named storm. Those already slim odds have since gone to zero given its environment Tuesday featured dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds.
So all in all,it was more of a curiosity to meteorologists that the first tropical weather outlook of 2025 was issued in the middle of March.
These outlooks are issued regularly four times a day from May 15 to Nov. 30 to highlight possible areas where depressions or storms could soon form. However,the NHC can issue special ones as we saw on Monday before and after that time frame,when needed.
The first named storm this season will be Andrea.
'Preseason'Storms Have Been A Common Theme
Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off in June,but it has jumped the gun with at least one storm in most years since the mid-2010s.
From 2015 through 2024,at least one named storm formed in the Atlantic Basin before June in each of those years except 2022 and 2024. You can see their tracks plotted on the map below.
The most recent one was a January 2023 subtropical storm that formed off the U.S. East Coast. So,technically,that was the first of the 2023 hurricane season. But since it wasn't named at the time,the "A"name (Arlene) went to a Gulf tropical storm in early June that year.
Some 'Preseason'Storms Have Brought Impacts
While some of these storms were short-lived and far from land,at least 20 deaths and about $200 million in damage can be attributed to May storms from 2012 through 2020,according to the World Meteorological Organization.
In 2016,Tropical Storm Bonnie soaked the coast of the Carolinas in late May. That was preceded by eastern Atlantic Hurricane Alex,only the second known January Atlantic hurricane. Alex eventually made landfall in the Azores as a tropical storm.
In 2012,Tropical Storm Beryl almost reached hurricane strength before landfall on Memorial Day weekend in northeast Florida.
Why Hurricane Season's Official Start Is June 1
As mentioned earlier,the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. That time frame encompasses over 97% of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes,according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.
In 1935,the season was set from June 15 through Nov. 15 to match up with a special telegraph line connecting the various centers of the U.S. Weather Bureau,according to NOAA-HRD. In 1964 and 1965,those start and end dates were adjusted to June 1 through Nov. 30. They've been the same ever since.
Early Storms Can't Predict An Entire Season
We examined all hurricane seasons in the satellite era – from 1966 through 2023 – parsing out whether or not they produced at least one storm before June 1.
As you might expect,the 18 seasons with at least one pre-June 1 named storm ended up with an average of three to four more storms for the season than the 39 seasons without a preseason storm.
However,the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) were virtually the same in seasons that started early compared to those that did not. This is because the overwhelming majority of both hurricanes and major hurricanes occur in the peak months of August through October.
So there's little useful information we can take away from the presence or lack of a pre-June 1 storm for the hurricane season.
Now is a good time to develop or refresh your hurricane plan well before the season's first hurricane.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at www.weathernow24.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison,then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter),Threads,Facebook and Bluesky.
