Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Updated
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be busier than average,despite three just-released lowered forecasts.
A total of 17 storms,seven of which become hurricanes and three attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) are now expected for the season,according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Now 24,an IBM Business,and Atmospheric G2.
That's a reduction of four storms and two hurricanes from their previous outlook in mid-July.
Earlier in August,outlooks from Colorado State University and NOAA also reduced their expected storm and hurricane tallies for the season.
Each of these outlooks include the three named storms – Alex,Bonnie and Colin – that have already formed this season,as of Aug. 18.
Despite the downtick,each forecast remains at or above the 1991-2020 average of 14 storms,seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Why The Tick Downward?
While three named storms through mid-August is only one storm shy of the pace of an average season,it's been over six weeks since the last named storm,Colin.
Does this slower start predict a less active season?
Atmospheric G2 vice president of meteorology Todd Crawford examined the number of storms through mid-August of the past 20 hurricane seasons. He found only 2 of the last 13 seasons with five or fewer storms through mid-August ended up being very active seasons.
Sinking,dry,dust-laden air from Africa's Sahara Desert has pushed westward across the Atlantic Basin through July,a typical suppressing factor early in the hurricane season. But that dry air has also persisted into the first two weeks of August.
Another reason for the downward adjustment involves the distribution of warmer- and cooler-than-average Atlantic Ocean water.
CSU tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach noted a strip of the ocean from northwest Africa extending westward to north of the Leeward Islands had become cooler than average in recent weeks.
Klotzbach said this pattern,if it persists,might lead to increased shearing winds that could rip apart systems trying to become tropical storms.
While still warm enough for development,Crawford added ocean temperatures were markedly cooler between Africa and the Lesser Antilles,Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in mid-August than was the case one year ago and especially two years ago,during the hyperactive 2020 season.
Tropical storms and hurricanes feed off warm ocean water. All other factors equal,the warmer the water,the stronger a hurricane can potentially become.
Don't Let Your Guard Down
One factor that still is suggesting a busy season lies ahead is the continuing La Niña.
This cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific has been in play for the better part of the last two hurricane seasons and is showing no signs of letting up through the rest of this one.
It's important because La Niña typically enhances the amount of activity seen during hurricane season compared to its counter-phase,El Niño,which causes stronger shearing winds aloft that limit tropical storm and hurricane growth.
(MORE:When You Can Expect The Season's First Atlantic Hurricane)
Despite this slight downward tick in the outlooks,the lion's share of storms and hurricanes this season lies ahead.
Klotzbach noted 90% of all hurricanes and 95% of all major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin happen after Aug. 1 in a typical year.
Last year,16 of the season's 21 named storms and six of the seven hurricanes formed after Aug. 1. This included Hurricane Ida,which made a Category 4 landfall in Louisiana,then triggered massive flash flooding in the Northeast.
And while the storm-less streak this season since early July is one of the longest in 27 years,even seasons with longer storm-less streaks have produced notable hurricanes,including some that hit the Caribbean and parts of the U.S.
The key point in all this was probably best summed up by Weather Now 24 hurricane expert and former National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb. Regardless of seasonal forecasts,all it takes is one hurricane to strike where you live to make the season "bad,"regardless of how many hurricanes form throughout the season.
If you’re along the East or Gulf coasts,the time to be ready for tropical weather is now. Information about hurricane preparedness can be found here.
The Weather Now 24’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news,the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company,IBM.
