Winter’s Bizarre Reversal Could Change
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If winter's cold and snow seems a little upside down so far this season,it's not your imagination.
More harsh than usual:According to the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) from the Midwest Regional Climate Center (MRCC),a strip of the central U.S. from eastern Kansas through the Appalachians of West Virginia,as well as parts of the Deep South from the northern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas have had a severe or extreme winter,so far,through Feb. 19. These are shown by either blue or purple dots in the map below,respectively.
Among those cities included Charleston,South Carolina;Louisville,Kentucky;Mobile,Alabama;Pensacola,Florida;and Topeka,Kansas.
A mild winter: In contrast,a swath of the nation's West,upper Midwest and northern New England have had a much milder than usual winter,so far. These are shown by red dots in the map above,including Caribou,Maine;Flagstaff,Arizona;and Madison,Wisconsin.
What this index means:Also known as the "winter misery index",the AWSSI takes into account three factors:the intensity and persistence of cold weather,the frequency and amount of snowfall and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. Wind and mixed precipitation,such as freezing rain,are not a part of the index.
The index uses five categories – mild,moderate,average,severe and extreme – to rate the severity of winter weather in cities across the U.S. over an entire cold season.
The higher the index,the more persistent snow and/or cold you've experienced. So,the map above looks flipped. The northern winter has been more "meh",while the South's winter has been rough,relatively speaking.
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Why upside down? A parade of 10 winter storms since early January largely hammered the central and southern U.S. while only providing some glancing blows of snow to the northern tier of states.
That included a trio of southern storms,Cora in the second week of January,then historic Enzo along the Gulf and Southeast coasts in late January,then Kingston over the past few days.
After the last of these storms,America's snow cover was the most expansive it had been all winter,blanketing 57% of the Lower 48.
In addition,blasts of cold air in January and mid-February surged into the Deep South,smashing hundreds of record lows,contributing to the higher misery indices,there.
One strange record mild winter,so far: Salt Lake City,usually known for its snowy,cold winters,is having its mildest winter on record so far,as measured by this misery index.
That's from a combination of warmth and lack of snow. It's been the Salt Lake Valley's 10th warmest winter to date,and their seasonal snowfall is only 9.2 inches,30 inches below their average pace. Only 2014-15 (6.8 inches) was less snowy through Feb. 19. (Don't worry if you're looking to hit Utah's ski resorts,by the way. They have normal snowpack right now.)
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed,hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
This probably won't stay upside down much longer: Don't expect the relatively snowless north to remain so into spring.
That's because the storm track shifts northward in spring. So instead of shivering in bitter cold outbreaks with relatively little snow,the northern tier can warm up a bit,but still be cold enough for snow as low pressure systems tap deeper moisture track closer.
As the map below shows,March is typically one of the two snowiest months of the year in parts of the High Plains and Rockies. The upper Midwest and Northeast certainly can get their fair share of winter storms in March,even April.
(MORE:Which Month Is Usually Your Snowiest?)
If your winter has been relatively boring,don't let your guard down. And if you're winter-weary in the South,there may still be some stubborn chill into March,but don't expect the parade of snowstorms we saw in January and February.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at www.weathernow24.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter),Threads,Facebook and Bluesky.
