Here Are The Changes We Expect In October Tropics
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The Atlantic hurricane season typically undergoes some important changes in October which affect not only how many storms form,but where they're more likely to strike.
A drop in the number of storms:In the satellite era since 1966,the number of storms and hurricanes that form in October is less than half that of September,the peak month of the season.
That still means to two to three storms and one to two hurricanes is the norm in October.
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Less favorable area: One reason for this is that as October wears on,there's typically less real estate of the Atlantic Basin favorable for development. Specifically,the eastern Atlantic Ocean,from Africa to the Lesser Antilles,as well as the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,become less supportive.
One reason for that is because wind shear,which typically rips apart systems trying to become tropical storms,increases in those areas from September to October.
Also,the parade of tropical waves - those disturbances marching off Africa that can be the seeds of tropical storms and hurricanes - steps downward in October.
By the end of October,very few storms have formed east of the Lesser Antilles,according to National Hurricane Center climatology. That also means the October hurricane threat is lower in Texas,compared to Florida.
But there's one U.S. exception: As the post from the National Weather Service in Miami noted,South Florida is one U.S. location in which more hurricanes have struck in October than any other month.
The main reason for that can be seen in the map above. One common October scenario is for storms to form in the far western Caribbean Sea,then get whipped quickly northeast into Florida.
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Recent October storms: Despite a typical step down from the September peak,there have still been notoriously destructive October hurricanes in recent years. Among them:
- Delta,then Zeta in 2020 in Louisiana and the Southeast
- Michael 2018,one of only four Category 5 mainland U.S. landfalls
- Matthew 2016's pummeling of Haiti,Cuba,the Bahamas,then scraping the Southeast coast
- Superstorm Sandy 2012
- Wilma 2005 in Cancún,then South Florida
So,October can still be a dangerous month. Make sure your hurricane plan is still ready to go.
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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at www.weathernow24.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter),Threads,Facebook and Bluesky.
